NEW ORLEANS – We are currently watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for the potential of tropical development over the next few days.

While a strong system seems unlikely, the impacts to our area could still be significant given the amount of heavy rain that we have seen over the past few weeks.

The area in question currently sits over the Yucatan Peninsula.

While not a closed low at the moment, this system is already producing winds of tropical storm force along with very heavy rain on the eastern side. The plume of tropical moisture extends well east and north of the potential center, and that is going to be something that could impact our area over the next few days.

At the moment, the exact track still has many possibilities, but east of the center could see very heavy rain spread out through the middle of the week.

Take a look at some rainfall projections as of Monday morning:

Keep in mind this is just one model and we are still talking about an extended period of time, but you can see the threat of locally heavy rainfall amounts especially on the south and eastern side of the area.

This could easily lead to flooding issues with the ground being saturated already. While there is less rainfall potential at the moment to the north, we have many swollen rivers in that area due to recent rains which could also increase the local flood threat.

The other main impact from this system right now looks to be coastal flooding. While the center could remain well offshore, the circulation around that could bring a prolonged time frame of easterly and southeasterly onshore flow to the area.

This could mean tide levels above normal that would create a flood threat for areas outside the levee system.

If you have interests in those areas along the coast that normally experience flooding, it may be a good idea to move vehicles or belongings to higher ground.

As always stay with WGNO for the latest developments.